US blockade of Strait of Hormuz deemed successful, expert counters media reports

A maritime expert has asserted that the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is largely successful, countering recent media reports. The likelihood of Trump announcing the blockade’s lifting by May 31 sits at 70.5% YES, down from 82% yesterday.

Market reaction

Traders adjusted odds quickly after the expert’s claims surfaced. The May 31 contract dropped from 82% to 79% in a single 3-point move at 5:36 AM, the largest price shift of the session. That move signals trader skepticism about an imminent lifting of the blockade.

Daily trading volume is $27,582 in USDC. It takes $8,549 to move the market 5 points, so the drop from 82% to 70.5% represents real conviction, not thin-book noise. Current odds point toward traders expecting the blockade to continue, given the expert’s positive assessment of its effectiveness.

Why it matters

The perception of the blockade’s success directly affects the probability of diplomatic breakthroughs needed for its removal. If the blockade is working, the US has less incentive to negotiate its end, and the May 31 deadline becomes harder to hit. At 70.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if Trump announces the blockade is lifted, a 1.42x return. That bet requires believing a diplomatic shift is coming despite signals that the US sees the status quo as effective.

What to watch

Statements from Trump or the Pentagon on blockade status, and any Iranian responses. Signs of back-channel talks or military escalations will move these odds. Trump’s social media posts remain a primary catalyst for this market.

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