Key Takeaways
- Trump will make an unspecified Oval Office announcement at 2 p.m. ET on Sept. 28, per White House guidance.
- The Fed hiked to 3.75%-4% on Sept. 16, and the 10-year Treasury yield sits near 5.2%.
- PCE on Sept. 30 and payrolls on Oct. 2 test bitcoin near $83,300 after a 1.5% Monday dip.
The Blank Space on the Calendar
Nobody outside the White House knows what the announcement covers. Julia Manchester of The Hill reported the timing on Sunday but giving no topic or agenda for the same. Polymarket’s post about the event had drawn more than 500,000 views over the last few hours.
That said, the guessing has a clear center of gravity, namely Iran. President Donald Trump said on Saturday he had turned down Tehran’s offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, adding:
I reject their proposal. But that deal would not be acceptable.
Iran’s seven-day plan asked Washington to lift its naval blockade, waive oil sanctions and release roughly $12 billion in frozen assets. In exchange, Tehran would reopen the strait and start final talks.
Consequently, oil rebounded more than 1% when markets reopened on Sunday evening while bitcoin slid about 1.5% to near $83,000 (just hours after posting its highest weekly close since January at $84,472).
How Tight Is the Job Market and the Fed’s Favorite Number
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index both land Tuesday. Neither usually moves crypto much on its own.
Moreover, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) arrives Wednesday alongside ADP’s private payrolls count. Core PCE last printed at 3.3% year over year, well above the Fed’s 2% goal.
That number matters more than usual because of what happened two weeks ago. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to a 3.75% to 4% range on Sept. 16, a 12-0 vote and its first hike since July 2023. The median projection shows one more hike before year-end.
The bond market is already leaning into it, with the 10-year Treasury yield closing Friday at 5.17% and the 30-year at 5.49%, Treasury figures showed. Not one to stay silent, Peter Schiff commented on the same while analyst Benjamin Cowen tied the two figures together, adding:
Usually after passing the 50W like in 2019/2023, BTC then runs 20-30% within 1-2 weeks. This time, the move has been much more muted, probably because of fears over seasonality and yields heading higher (which is often bearish for long-duration assets like crypto).
October and Beyond
The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing survey lands on Oct. 1, the first day of the fourth quarter. Bitcoin’s price rose about 44% in the third quarter, the second-best Q3 on record, so the bulls start October with a big cushion and plenty to protect.
The September nonfarm payrolls report is the one popular trader Martini Guy said he’d watch “most closely” this week since August’s report showed 162,000 jobs added and unemployment at 4.1%.
Also, crypto markets are going into the week with some momentum as U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) added roughly $2.4 billion last week, per Scott Melker, their best week since October 2025.
Bitcoin also posted its first weekly close above May’s $82,850 high as macro pressures continued to weigh on sentiment (all while inflows have improved).
