Strait of Hormuz traffic nearly halted amid Iran-US blockades

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is nearly at a standstill, with blockades from both Iran and the US showing no signs of easing. Odds for traffic returning to normal by May 15 have dropped to 14% YES, down from 20% just 24 hours ago.

Market reaction

The market for Trump announcing the lifting of the US blockade by May 31 sits at 54.5% YES, down from 72% yesterday. With 37 days until resolution, the drop reflects entrenched positions on both sides. The largest recent move was a 5-point spike at 3:50 PM, from 57% to 62%, likely driven by speculative trading rather than new developments.

Why it matters

For the traffic normalizing by May 15 market, daily volume is $36,459 in USDC, and only $4,658 is needed to move the price 5 points, meaning small trades can cause large swings. The ongoing blockade and absence of diplomatic progress indicate traders are betting heavily against a quick resolution.

What to watch

At 14¢, a YES share for traffic normalizing by May 15 pays $1 if resolved, a 7.14x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe in a drastic shift in negotiations within 21 days. Given the current diplomatic stalemate between the US and Iran, with no visible movement toward a ceasefire or agreement to lift the blockades, that shift looks unlikely. Watch for announcements from CENTCOM or the Iranian Foreign Ministry. A surprising diplomatic breakthrough could move these markets fast, but current positioning is heavily bearish.

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