Iran’s Foreign Minister announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, briefly easing tensions and pushing the probability of crude oil hitting $90 by June lower on Polymarket’s crude oil price predictions for June market. The move comes during ongoing U.S.-Iran talks.
Market reaction
The reopening announcement has pulled down odds on oil reaching $90 by June, as the open strait could relieve supply pressure that previously drove prices above $100/barrel. Traders are recalibrating expectations around Iran’s conditional opening, which depends on ceasefire adherence. S&P 500 markets for April 15 and April 14 were not directly affected, as those events occurred after their relevant dates. The broader geopolitical risk implications of the strait reopening could still feed into related markets.
Why it matters
Easing supply concerns reduce the likelihood of a sharp oil price spike, making a YES bet on $90 oil by June harder to justify without further escalation. Buying YES at this stage requires confidence that tensions will resume or that new supply disruptions will materialize.
What to watch
Three factors could shift the market from here: OPEC+ meeting outcomes, U.S. strategic reserves releases, and any renewed disruption to Strait operations. Each would directly affect whether the current lower-probability pricing on $90 oil holds or reverses.
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