Iran-Oman partnership signals extended Hormuz blockade amid US tensions

Araghchi’s commitment to a bilateral Iran-Oman partnership for safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz suggests Iran isn’t ready to comply with international demands. The odds for Trump lifting the Hormuz blockade by May 31 have decreased to 61% YES, down from 72% just 24 hours ago.

The Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement market dropped 11 points in a single day. With 37 days until resolution, the price move from 72% to 61% YES shows traders pricing in Iran’s preference for regional arrangements over international ones, which could extend the blockade timeline.

Daily volume sits at $95,253 in USDC. Order book depth is $8,975 to move 5 points, which means moderate liquidity. The largest move was a 5-point spike in the past 24 hours. A single large order could still swing odds meaningfully at this depth.

This fits a pattern where statements from Iranian officials have consistently pushed odds lower. At 61¢, a YES share pays $1 if Trump lifts the blockade by May 31, a 1.64x return. That bet requires believing Iran and the US will reach a diplomatic breakthrough in the next five weeks.

Watch for statements from Trump, new developments in US-Iran negotiations, or changes in naval deployments. White House or Pentagon announcements will be the most direct catalysts in the coming weeks.

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