Key Takeaways
- FIFA found no substantiated suspicious betting across the tournament’s 104 matches.
- The Group of Copenhagen issued 7 notices against an estimated $240B in wagers.
- Prediction markets received continuous monitoring at a major event for the first time.
Prediction markets enter integrity surveillance
FIFA declared the 2026 World Cup free of suspicious betting activity on July 21 after its Integrity Task Force monitored all 104 matches in real time. The governing body said information collected from its partners produced no indication that any fixture had been manipulated.
One day later, the Council of Europe disclosed that the Group of Copenhagen had issued seven “Yellow Notices” during its independent monitoring operation. The network also placed 15 matches under enhanced monitoring, particularly during the final group-stage round, and assessed 12 major controversies for potential integrity risks.
Yellow is the lowest alert level above green on the Group’s four-tier scale, and no orange or red notices were issued. The Group describes yellow notices as covering “unexplained fluctuations in odds, rumours on social media or source information,” and says they do not amount to proof of manipulation. FIFA said task-force members shared and assessed alerts before reaching its final conclusion, and the Council’s summary does not say that any notice developed into confirmed suspicious betting.
The Group of Copenhagen estimates that roughly $240 billion was wagered across the tournament, approximately double the amount recorded at Qatar 2022, meaning seven alerts emerged from an unprecedented volume of betting activity.
Fourteen national platforms participated in the operation, drawn from an international network of more than 45 members. Analysts examined betting markets, odds movements, withdrawn betting offers, open-source information and social-media intelligence, while also monitoring people previously suspected of involvement in sports manipulation. Both the Council of Europe and the Group of Copenhagen are members of FIFA’s own task force – which also includes the FBI, INTERPOL, UNODC, the DOJ, Sportradar, IBIA and Genius Sports alongside the confederations.
The tournament marked the first time the Group of Copenhagen continuously monitored prediction markets during a major international sporting event. The Council said the platforms create new challenges because users can trade on a wide range of incidents, sometimes anonymously and through payment methods that are difficult to trace.
The public summary does not identify Kalshi, Polymarket, ADI Predictstreet or any other platform as the source of a Yellow Notice, nor does it reveal how the seven notices were resolved or whether any information was referred to regulators. The Athletic, citing sources briefed on the report, reported that flagged cases related to red cards, large transactions and new markets. Those included the red card shown to South Africa’s Themba Zwane against Mexico, roughly $4.8 million traded on Polymarket against a Spain win over Cape Verde in a group-stage match that finished goalless, and the overturning of a one-match suspension for United States forward Folarin Balogun. The Group has formally asked FIFA for a written explanation of the Balogun decision.
Prediction-market activity reached unprecedented levels during the tournament. Kalshi and Polymarket recorded nearly $2 billion in final-specific trading, while combined monthly volume across the leading platforms rose 75% to a $44.8 billion record in June. Tournament-wide, $5.81 billion moved across 52 World Cup events by mid-July.
FIFA also brought a prediction market into its sponsorship program for the first time through ADI Predictstreet. When announcing the agreement, FIFA said its partner would use real-time suspicious-trading surveillance and structured information-sharing systems. ADI Predictstreet later opened to US traders.
Council of Europe Secretary General Alain Berset criticized that relationship before the final, arguing that markets involving cards, passes and other player-controlled incidents create an “open door to fraud.” He urged FIFA to begin building a new integrity framework for the 2030 tournament.
FIFA’s clean bill remains its official conclusion, and the seven notices should not be presented as proof that matches were fixed. Their disclosure nevertheless exposes how little the public knows about the alerts generated during the tournament and establishes prediction markets as a permanent part of international football’s integrity surveillance.
