US officials doubt the US-Iran negotiation gaps will close by Trump’s Tuesday deadline. Ceasefire odds for April 7 are at 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday.
Traders face a bleak outlook. The April 7 market shows almost no chance of resolution, with odds dropping from 12% a week ago. The April 15 market sits at 6% YES, down from 8% yesterday. The April 30 market holds at 18% YES, suggesting some hope for a breakthrough later in the month.
Liquidity varies, with the April 7 contract seeing $1,439,535 in daily face value but only $22,948 in USDC traded. It takes $12,367 to shift the odds by 5 points, indicating moderate depth. The largest recent move was a 1-point drop in the April 15 market, showing stability amid pessimism.
Negotiation gaps remain wide, souring sentiment. Traders are more hopeful as the timeline extends, with a 19-point odds increase between April 30 and May 31, suggesting an anticipated catalyst. However, Trump’s escalation threats and deadline extensions keep traders bearish.
At 18¢, a YES share for April 30 pays $1 if a ceasefire is announced — a 5.5x return. This bet requires belief in a diplomatic surprise. Until intermediaries like Oman shift language or activity, these odds reflect a tough road for peace.
Watch for any softening in Trump’s language or new talks by intermediaries. Hegseth’s Pentagon briefing on Friday could reveal military plans affecting negotiations.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
