Key Takeaways
- Polymarket and Kalshi show rising odds of Iran’s Supreme Leader exiting office, with contracts now pricing over 65% by 2026.
- Trump has threatened consequences if violence escalates, further fueling geopolitical volatility.
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Prediction markets now place odds of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stepping down or being removed by the end of 2026 at roughly 65%, as mass protests and a deepening economic crisis fuel nationwide unrest.
On Polymarket odds of Khamenei’s departure by December 31 have surged from 30% in late December to nearly 65%. Separate contracts show 24% odds of his exit by January 31, 46% by March 31, and 53% by June 30.
Kalshi prices Khamenei’s exit before 2027 at 66%, also up from 30% weeks ago.
Hundreds have reportedly been killed and thousands arrested in Iran amid the unrest. The country faces 45% inflation and a collapsing rial, with basic goods like meat and cooking oil becoming unaffordable for many.
US-led sanctions over Iran’s nuclear program, combined with corruption and mismanagement, have pushed the economy further toward crisis.
US President Donald Trump has issued public warnings threatening military action if protesters are killed. He also stated that countries doing business with Iran could face a 25% tariff on trade with the US.
Khamenei, who has ruled for over 36 years, holds final authority over Iran’s military, foreign policy, and domestic affairs despite the presence of an elected parliament.
