U.S. forces have recovered a crew member from a downed F-15E inside Iranian territory, confirming ground operations. Odds for U.S. forces entering Iran by April 30 are at 86.5% YES, up from 62% a day ago.
The April 30 market surged due to the operation, with odds jumping 24 points in 24 hours. The most significant spike was 4 points at 2:14 PM. December 31 odds rose to 90.5%, up from 72% yesterday, indicating expectations for sustained ground presence.
The market’s 24-hour USDC volume was $5,069,224, showing strong trader engagement. April 30’s $84,737 order book depth suggests significant capital is needed to shift odds, indicating institutional interest. The December 31 market, with a $21,582 depth, is thinner but still requires considerable trades to move.
This incident increases the likelihood of U.S. forces entering Iran, aligning with Operation Epic Fury’s progression. The downed F-15E and rescue mission signal a shift towards more aggressive ground tactics. A YES share at 86¢ pays $1 if resolved by April 30, offering a 16% return if ground operations continue.
Watch for statements from Trump, Secretary of Defense Hegseth, or CENTCOM. Any confirmation of expanded ground operations or a shift in Pentagon rhetoric could further impact the odds.
Markets Impacted
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