Key takeaways
- Bitcoin and Ethereum reaching specific price levels could indicate a sustainable market move.
- AI-driven market rotations are expected due to mispositioned investments.
- No recession is anticipated due to robust AI demand.
- Inflation may rise significantly, potentially reaching levels not seen since the early 1990s.
- AI is fundamentally disrupting businesses by making coding cheaper and more accessible.
- Many people are not fully utilizing AI, often treating it as a simple tool.
- Advanced AI models are selectively distributed, creating competitive advantages.
- The development of advanced AI models could pose cybersecurity risks.
- Cryptography is predicted to become crucial for cybersecurity by year-end.
- AI’s impact on market dynamics is significant, influencing investment strategies.
- The disconnect between AI advancements and user engagement is notable.
- Selective access to AI models highlights competitive disparities.
- Advanced AI technologies may lead to a dystopian cybersecurity landscape.
- The role of cryptography in defending against cyber threats is growing.
- AI’s transformative effect on software businesses is reshaping industries.
Guest intro
Jordi Visser is CEO of Visser Labs and Head of AI Macro Research at 22V Research. He previously served as President and Chief Investment Officer at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers from 2005 to 2024, following over a decade as Managing Director at Morgan Stanley focused on emerging markets. He is the author of the VisserLabs Substack, analyzing macro trends in AI, bitcoin, and commodities.
Bitcoin and Ethereum market trends
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If Bitcoin trades above $76,000 and Ethereum above $2,400, it could signal the start of a sustainable market move this year.
— Jordi Visser
- The significance of these price levels lies in their potential to indicate market trends.
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I believe that is the beginning of a move that will be sustainable this year because I don’t think we’re gonna have a recession.
— Jordi Visser
- Understanding current market conditions is crucial for interpreting these predictions.
- Technical levels provide insight into potential future trends.
- Bitcoin and Ethereum’s performance is closely watched by investors.
- Market predictions are based on high confidence in economic stability.
- The absence of a recession is a key factor in these forecasts.
AI-driven market rotations
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This year will be characterized by continuous rotation in the markets due to mispositioning around artificial intelligence.
— Jordi Visser
- AI’s impact on investment strategies is leading to market rotations.
- Investors must adapt to technological shifts to remain competitive.
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I think every week I say to people this is gonna be a continuous year of rotation just because of how mispositioned people are for artificial intelligence.
— Jordi Visser
- Awareness of current market dynamics is essential for strategic planning.
- Mispositioning around AI presents both challenges and opportunities.
- The importance of adapting to AI-driven changes cannot be overstated.
- Market behavior is increasingly influenced by technological advancements.
Economic outlook and inflation
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There is no recession coming due to massive AI demand.
— Jordi Visser
- AI demand is a significant factor in economic forecasts.
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As I’ve said repeatedly and will continue to say there is no recession coming and that’s because the AI demand is massive.
— Jordi Visser
- Inflation could rise significantly, reaching levels not seen since the early 90s.
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We’ve moved to a place where inflation is gonna be significantly higher and it could be higher than any time outside believe it or not outside of 2022 we could have headline inflation up at 6% which would be the highest level since I think the early nineties.
— Jordi Visser
- Current economic conditions suggest a complex landscape for investors.
- Understanding inflation trends is crucial for financial planning.
- AI’s role in economic stability is increasingly recognized.
AI’s impact on business and coding
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Artificial intelligence is fundamentally disrupting businesses built on code by making coding cheaper and more accessible.
— Jordi Visser
- AI is transforming traditional software businesses.
- The accessibility of coding is enhanced by AI advancements.
- Businesses must adapt to AI-driven changes to remain competitive.
- AI’s impact on business models is profound and far-reaching.
- The tech industry is undergoing significant shifts due to AI.
- Understanding AI’s transformative effect is crucial for strategic planning.
- The cost of coding is decreasing, altering industry dynamics.
Public perception and use of AI
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The majority of people are not utilizing AI to its full potential, often treating it as a simple chatbot or search engine.
— Jordi Visser
- There is a significant gap in how AI is perceived and utilized.
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I think the majority of people that I meet are in the first camp… they still use it as a chatbot or a search engine and that’s it.
— Jordi Visser
- Many people have not yet engaged with AI agents, despite their ease of use.
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We’re so far further ahead in progress from where we were in October… it’s actually kinda scary to me since it’s so easy to use.
— Jordi Visser
- The disconnect between technological progress and user engagement is notable.
- Understanding AI’s potential is crucial for maximizing its benefits.
- Public perception of AI is evolving, but slowly.
Selective distribution of AI models
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The models for synthetic superhuman intelligence are being selectively distributed to certain entities, creating a competitive advantage.
— Jordi Visser
- Selective access to advanced AI models highlights competitive disparities.
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This separation is mythos from anthropic is not actually being given to the public we’re giving it to some cybersecurity experts it sounds like maybe jpmorgan has access to it as well.
— Jordi Visser
- The implications of selective access are significant for market dynamics.
- Certain entities gain a competitive edge through exclusive AI access.
- Understanding the distribution of AI models is crucial for strategic planning.
- The impact of selective access on competition is profound.
- Advanced AI technologies are reshaping industry landscapes.
Cybersecurity risks and AI advancements
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The emergence of advanced AI models could lead to a dangerous stage in cybersecurity and the development of true AGI.
— Jordi Visser
- AI advancements pose significant risks to cybersecurity.
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We’re at that point where we’ve talked about when would we get there we’re there and it’s a little dystopian to to see what’s going on.
— Jordi Visser
- The development of true AGI is a critical concern for security experts.
- Understanding AI’s implications for cybersecurity is crucial.
- The potential risks associated with AI advancements are significant.
- Cybersecurity strategies must adapt to new AI challenges.
- The landscape of cybersecurity is evolving rapidly due to AI.
The role of cryptography in cybersecurity
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Cryptography will become essential for defense against cyber threats by the end of the year.
— Jordi Visser
- Cryptography’s importance in cybersecurity is growing.
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Before the end of this year I still believe that we’re going to have a situation where cryptography ironically enough is gonna be the place that people have to go to to try and defend against this.
— Jordi Visser
- The role of cryptography in defending against cyber threats is crucial.
- Understanding the landscape of cyber threats is essential for strategic planning.
- Cryptography offers a critical line of defense in the digital age.
- The increasing importance of cryptography is a key trend in cybersecurity.
- Cybersecurity strategies must incorporate cryptographic solutions.
