Iran released footage of Operation True Promise 4 and threatened Zionist embassies if attacked. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 are at 13.5% YES, down from 20% a week ago.
The footage underscores Iran’s missile and drone campaign against Israel and US bases. Under Mojtaba Khamenei, these actions have stabilized regime fall odds. The market for a regime fall by June 30 increased slightly to 13.5% from 12% in the last 24 hours, indicating traders are considering Iran’s threats seriously.
The June 30 market remains the main focus, with 88 days until resolution. A 1-point increase at 7:21 PM suggests some speculation on instability, but odds show confidence in regime stability. The market trades $59,602 in USDC daily, with $195,733 needed to shift odds by five points, showing a strong order book.
The social media-sourced news hasn’t caused a major shift. Iran’s military capability in the footage suggests regime control. A YES share in the regime fall market at 14¢ pays $1 if it resolves, offering a 7x return. This bet requires belief in significant deterioration in Iran over the next 88 days.
Watch for changes in Mojtaba Khamenei’s public appearances, IRGC leadership shifts, or unexpected Assembly of Experts activity. These would impact the market.
Markets Impacted
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