Iran has rejected a temporary ceasefire, demanding guarantees for a permanent end to the war. The odds of a ceasefire by April 7 are at 1% YES, down from 2% a day ago and 12% a week ago.
Iran’s decision has hit prediction markets hard. The April 7 market is flat at 1%. The April 15 market dropped to 6.5% YES, down from 8% yesterday. The April 30 market fell to 17.5% YES from 24% a day ago and 40% a week ago. Traders are pessimistic about a quick resolution.
Traders expect a longer timeline for any ceasefire. A 19-point jump between April 30 and May 31 suggests a potential catalyst. Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz strengthens its position, making a quick resolution unlikely.
The market’s daily trading volume is at $430,773 in USDC across all sub-markets. The order book is deep, with $12,367 needed to move the April 7 market by 5 points. This indicates substantial trading activity, not just a few large bets.
Iran’s demands push the probability of a ceasefire further away. At 1¢, a YES share for April 7 is a high-risk bet with a 100x payout if resolved positively. But given Iran’s firm stance and lack of diplomatic progress, this seems more like a long shot. Watch for changes in language from key actors like Trump or Hegseth or intermediary activity from Oman or Qatar, which could shift market dynamics.
Markets Impacted
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
