Key Takeaways
- Tom Lee links the ISM manufacturing index moving above 50 to a potential new Bitcoin and Ethereum supercycle.
- Lee highlights the end of quantitative tightening and rising liquidity as bullish factors for crypto markets.
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Fundstrat’s Tom Lee said that Bitcoin and Ethereum have historically entered strong growth periods when the ISM rises above 50.
“So the ISM moving back above 50 has historically been associated with actually super cycle moves in Bitcoin and Ethereum,” Lee said in a Wednesday interview with CNBC’s “The Exchange.”
The ISM manufacturing index tracks key US economic trends through the Manufacturing and Services Indexes. Purchasing managers report on new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories, which are aggregated into a diffusion index.
Readings above 50 indicate growth in economic activity, while readings below 50 signal contraction. The latest ISM Manufacturing PMI reading is 48.2 for November 2025.
Asked about the ISM index’s link to Bitcoin, Lee explained that the correlation is strong after factoring in Bitcoin’s long-term trend.
“If you look at ISM and Bitcoin and you detrend Bitcoin, essentially look at its distance from the 208, it’s almost perfectly correlated to the ISM,” he said.
On Bitcoin’s cycle, the chairman of BitMine countered expectations that the market would follow its typical four-year pattern.
Lee appeared to agree with ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood, who believes the Bitcoin four-year cycle is going to be disrupted.
He expects new highs for crypto assets as early as January.
“I think Bitcoin is a bit of a chameleon because there’ll probably be a time when it acts like gold,” Lee said. “But right now it acts a lot more like it’s sensitive to monetary policy and the business cycle. And both are about to turn up.”
“That would mean anybody who thinks the Bitcoin four-year cycle means crypto prices are down next year. We’re betting against that thinking that new highs [will] come early like January,” he added.
