FCC orders review of Disney’s ABC licenses after Trump demands Kimmel firing

Trump-appointed FCC Chairman Brendan Carr has ordered an early review of licenses for eight Disney-owned ABC stations, following demands from President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump that ABC fire Jimmy Kimmel after his April 23 joke about Melania. The market for Kimmel being fired or resigning by May 31 is at 5.5% YES, down from 8% yesterday.

Market reaction

The price dropped 43 points in the past 24 hours as traders who initially bid up the contract reversed course. The largest single-candle move went from 50% to 8%. Order book depth is $6,265 in USDC to move the price 5 points, which indicates moderate liquidity.

Why it matters

The FCC has not previously used license reviews as direct leverage tied to a president’s demand that a network fire a specific host. Trump’s administration is applying federal regulatory pressure on Disney to act against Kimmel. The market at 5.5% YES suggests traders believe Disney will not fire a late-night host over a joke, even under this kind of pressure.

What to watch

At 6¢, a YES share pays $1 if Kimmel is fired or resigns by May 31, a 16.7x return. For this to pay off, Disney would need to capitulate to political pressure, an outcome the market prices as unlikely without further escalation. Responses from Disney executives like Bob Iger or Dana Walden would be the most direct catalyst. Any formal FCC complaint, union lawsuits, or a new public statement from Trump could also move the contract.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.