China accelerates Iran diplomacy ahead of potential Trump-Xi summit

China is ramping up diplomatic efforts with Iran ahead of a potential Trump-Xi summit. Trump visiting China by May 31 is now at 85.5% YES, up from 76% a week ago.

Market reaction

The May 31 sub-market is the biggest mover, now at 85.5% YES after an 84-point jump from April 30. The June 30 sub-market sits at 90.5% YES, showing high confidence that a visit happens by early summer.

The market trades $36,010 in USDC daily, with $3,933 in order book depth needed to move the price 5 points. That’s moderately liquid — large trades could still move odds meaningfully. The largest single move was a 1-point spike, consistent with steady rather than volatile trading.

Why it matters

China’s outreach to Iran looks like an effort to clear potential spoilers before the summit. If Beijing can reduce the risk of a flare-up involving Iran, it removes one of the more likely reasons Trump might cancel or postpone. The diplomatic push and the rising odds are moving in the same direction.

What to watch

White House or Chinese state media confirmations of summit logistics would be the most direct catalyst. Statements from Trump, Xi, or the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Iran or bilateral relations could shift odds quickly in either direction.

At a current price of 86¢, a YES share pays $1 if Trump visits by May 31, a 1.16x return. That bet requires believing China maintains this de-escalation path without new conflict triggers emerging before the deadline.

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