Explosions rocked southern Tehran, raising concerns over regime stability. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 are now at 14% YES, up from 12% a day ago.
The ongoing conflict, marked by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes and Iranian retaliations, keeps traders on edge. The June 30 market reflects this unease, focusing on potential regime collapse or leadership change. Despite the recent explosions, odds remain below last week’s 20%.
Trading in this market reached $59,602 in USDC over the past 24 hours. The $195,733 needed to move the odds 5 points suggests it’s not easily swayed by minor news. The largest single move was a 1-point spike, indicating traders are cautious, waiting for more definitive signs of regime instability.
The explosions pressure the Iranian regime, but traders need more than sporadic incidents to significantly alter their views. At 14¢, a YES share pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30 — a 6.1x return. For this bet to pay off, something more substantial than today’s explosions is needed, like a leadership crisis or significant internal fractures.
Watch for key indicators such as Mojtaba Khamenei’s public appearances, IRGC cohesion, and any unexpected convening of the Assembly of Experts. These could be the signals traders need to adjust their positions meaningfully.
Markets Impacted
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