The US is considering seizing strategic islands near Iran, escalating tensions. Odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday and 12% a week ago.
This potential military action hits ceasefire prospects. The April 15 market fell to 6.5% YES from 8% yesterday. The April 30 odds dropped sharply from 24% to 17.5% in 24 hours.
Traders expect significant developments in May, as shown by a 19-point jump between April 30 and May 31. The May 31 odds are now at 36.5% YES, down from 46% yesterday, indicating skepticism about a near-term resolution.
The market’s face value is $3.76M daily, with $431K in actual USDC traded. The order book shows $12,352 moves the April 7 market 5 points, making it sensitive to large trades. A recent 2-point spike in the April 30 market likely came from a significant order.
This news comes from a tier-3 source and lacks official confirmation, limiting its impact. At 1¢, a YES share by April 7 pays $1 if resolved—a 100x return. Belief in a diplomatic breakthrough within four days is needed for this bet.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM, the Pentagon, or intermediaries like Oman and Qatar. Any sign of de-escalation or talks could shift the odds.
Markets Impacted
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