Bernstein, the research and brokerage unit of AllianceBernstein, believes Bitcoin has found its cycle low and reiterates a $150,000 year-end target, implying more than double the upside from current levels.
The call, issued in a note led by analyst Gautam Chhugani this week, comes after a drawdown that shaved half of Bitcoin’s value from its October 2025 record.
Bitcoin was changing hands near $70,000 at the time of the report, having recovered from lows around $62,500 reached in late February. The token peaked at $126,279 last October, meaning the subsequent slide of roughly 50% ranks among the sharpest corrections in Bitcoin’s post-institutionalization era.
“We believe Bitcoin has found its trough and is now heading higher,” Chhugani wrote.
Why Bernstein thinks the bottom is in
That framing hinges on what didn’t happen during the downturn. Prior bear markets were typically punctuated by exchange collapses, lending-platform insolvencies, or cascading corporate failures.
The 2026 correction, driven largely by geopolitical anxiety after US-Israeli military strikes on Iran beginning in late February, produced heavy liquidations among leveraged traders and profit-taking by long-term holders, but no systemic breakdowns.
Flows of ETFs held steady
US spot Bitcoin ETFs, approved in early 2024, have absorbed over $56 billion in cumulative net inflows.
Despite a volatile start to the year, these products have shown significant resilience, recording four consecutive weeks of net inflows totaling over $2 billion in March 2026.
Combined assets for the US spot complex now sit at approximately $90 billion, representing roughly 6.4% of Bitcoin’s total market cap.
Corporate accumulation
Public companies collectively hold more than one million Bitcoin, about 5.6% of the token’s fixed 21-million-unit supply.
The most prominent accumulator is Strategy, the enterprise-software-company-turned-Bitcoin-treasury-vehicle formerly known as MicroStrategy, which holds 762,099 coins.
Bernstein maintained an outperform rating on Strategy shares with a $450 price target, implying upside of more than 220% from the stock’s recent level of $138.
One notable fundraising instrument is STRC, Strategy’s perpetual preferred stock, whose trading volumes climbed 65% over the prior three months, and its perpetual structure lets the company raise long-term capital without the equity dilution that comes with common-stock issuance.
Bitcoin versus gold
Bitcoin has outperformed gold by roughly 25% since hostilities intensified at the end of February, a comparison Bernstein cited to argue the asset functions as a portable, censorship-resistant store of value during geopolitical stress.
According to Glassnode data, over 60% of the circulating supply is now held by long-term participants, which means the pool of coins susceptible to forced selling during drawdowns has shrunk compared with earlier cycles.
